insights.

In this year’s outlook, we share our views on a number of macro themes which we think will be highly relevant in 2019 and their likely cross-asset implications.

It is clear that the fiscal stimulus had a big impact on US growth and was responsible for the economic outperformance in 2018, but this positive boost to the economy is now expected to fade gradually in 2019.

Understanding the drivers of the current trade war remains key to understanding current and future asset market developments, especially in emerging markets (EM). 

We think the consensus forecast for Chinese growth in 2019 is too bearish. It has been pricing a lot of negativity which we think will be offset to a certain extent by the policy moves undertaken by China. 

When it comes to growth outcomes in Europe, we expect trend growth dynamics and see the recent slowdown especially in Germany as temporary. Beyond cyclical factors, political risks in Europe, however, are likely to remain elevated going into 2019.

Global inflation dynamics overshooting is a key risk to our central scenario of a “no recession, yet tricky” year in 2019 as central banks are likely to move into unified hiking mode across the globe and the liquidity pumped into the system post-financial crisis begins to gradually unwind.

Populism, fuelled by rising inequality, is on the rise and continues to shape political outcomes in key economies. There is an argument that the policy actions taken by central banks in the aftermath of global financial crisis have been a strong contributor to widening the gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ as rising asset prices is a key channel through which monetary policy works. 

 

The rise in global leverage we have witnessed since 2008/2009 leaves the global economic system much less resilient to any income or interest rate shocks. Since the end of the financial crisis, the world has seen a dramatic increase in the amount of leverage in the non-financial sector.

Our central scenario of a “No Recession Yet Tricky” year is likely to deliver positive macro support for risky assets, but we are also likely to see more volatility along the way.

In these live webinars, Salman Ahmed, PhD, Chief Investment Strategist, and Charles St Arnaud, Senior Investment Strategist, will share their views on all the key factors expected to shape the global economy in 2019.

Silvercrest Investment Managers (‘Silvercrest IM’) is moving its Netherlands headquarters to the prestigious NoMA House, located in Amsterdam’s Financial Mile, as the firm reinforces its commitment to the Dutch market.

The next economic revolution is already underway. We believe it will drive returns in the next three to five years and beyond and we are committed to identifying those companies which are best positioned to benefit.

Opportunities and scenarios of an ageing society. Dr Stephan Sigrist is the founder and head of W.I.R.E., a leading interdisciplinary think tank. He recently delivered the keynote speech - “The world is ageing - Opportunities and scenarios of an ageing society” - at a Silvercrest IM event in Zurich on September 25. The following Q&A was conducted after the event.

Affirmative Investment Management (AIM), has released the first annual impact report for the Silvercrest – Global Climate Bond (“the Fund”). The report details over 1000 projects and initiatives that were fully or partially supported by the impact bonds the Fund invests in.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Investors are playing an increasingly pivotal role in combating this unprecedented threat as the transition to a greener, low-carbon economy is also one of the biggest potential drivers of investment returns in history.

Which countries are leading the way in combating climate change?

The average age of the global population is on the rise and this demographic shift will force us to rethink almost every sector of society. Companies that are well placed to meet the needs of the older generation potentially stand to gain the most.

The next economic revolution is already underway. At Silvercrest Investment Managers, we believe it will drive returns in the next three to five years and beyond. 

Johan Utterman, portfolio manager of Silvercrest – Golden Age, a fund which invests in the ageing theme. He reviews the fund’s performance and explain why they think this broad-based structural trend is set to gather speed.

The ‘silver’ generation is fast-growing and increasingly wealthy. This has significant implications for the financial sector, but especially wealth management.

The US economy is in the last phase of the economic cycle that has powered markets for nearly nine years. Investors could previously look to bond market activity to gauge whether a recession was looming but it’s possible that the Federal Reserve has rendered this indicator obsolete.

Salman Ahmed, Chief Investment at Silvercrest Investment Managers discusses the latest developments in ECB policy, the impact of Italy’s newly formed government on the Italian market and questions what the ECB can do if Italy precipitates another Eurozone crisis.

Ritesh Bamania, Head of UK Institutional Clients and Solutions at Silvercrest Investment Managers, explains why he welcomes the DWP consultation and its efforts to put ESG risks higher up the agenda.

Salman Ahmed, Chief Investment Strategist at Silvercrest Investment Managers, comments on the result of the Turkish presidential election.

New corporate bond issues tend to appreciate in price when compared to benchmark bonds, providing an incentive for investors to participate in the primary market. As issuance in the corporate bond universe accounts for over 20% per year of the total outstanding amount, the investment implications are significant.  

Following a month of intense pressure on the Turkish Lira (TRY) and repeated market calls for official intervention, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) took action last night at an emergency meeting by hiking the Late Liquidity Window Lending (LLW) rate by 300bps to 16.5%. All other rates were left unchanged, however, the Turkish central bank reiterated that it ‘will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective’.

The nervous reaction of investors to political developments in Italy highlights concerns over the implications for Eurozone stability. While it is too early to have a clear view of how the situation will develop, we believe that now is the time for investors to assess their exposure to European assets, especially Italy and the rest of the periphery.

After a prolonged period of depreciation, the US dollar has strengthened in recent weeks. Is this the sign of a sustained shift taking hold? What does it mean for investors?

Bertrand Gacon, Head of Impact Office, Guillaume Bonnel, Head of Impact Investing at Silvercrest Investment Managers (LOIM) and Stuart Kinnersley, Managing Partner at Affirmative Investment Management (AIM) celebrate the first anniversary of Silvercrest–Global Climate Bond, a joint initiative between Silvercrest and AIM. They discuss a flourishing green bond market and what investors can expect in the near future.

At its ‘Rethink Responsible Capital’ symposium held in Zurich on 12^th March, Silvercrest Investment Managers (Silvercrest IM) gathered political, business and investment leaders to discuss how the world is changing in the face of significant social and environmental challenges, and how investors can gear portfolios for this new paradigm. 

A sustainability revolution is underway, which will drive economic and investment outcomes over the long term.

On 12 March, the Silvercrest Rethink Responsible Capital symposium brought together political, business and investment leaders to discuss how our world is changing in the face of significant social and environmental challenges, and how investors can gear their portfolios for this new paradigm.

As Al Gore, former US Vice President and co-founder of Generation Investment Management told the audience during his keynote speech: “The sustainability revolution is the single largest investment opportunity in history.”

Over the last few days, the markets have been increasingly focused on the specter of a global trade war, triggered by the recent US policy announcement. The Trump administration’s decision to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum caught the market by surprise on Friday. In addition, the rhetoric accompanying the tariffs announcement has been very sharp, led by President Trump himself, and has led to both the EU and Canada reacting with concrete warnings of their own

Silvercrest Investment Managers announces the appointment of Arnaud Langlois to launch a global equity long/short investment strategy with a sustainability focus.

In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has been less aggressive on trade than expected, especially considering his rhetoric during the campaign.

The Insurance Linked Strategies (ILS) team at Silvercrest Investment Managers (‘Silvercrest IM’) has completed its first bond transaction using blockchain, the immutable ledger for recording transactions. The team’s purchase of catastrophe bonds is believed to be among the first secondary market transaction completed on blockchain. 

Silvercrest Investment Managers (‘Silvercrest IM’) announces the appointment of Velida Jahic as Head of Nordics

Silvercrest Investment Managers (‘Silvercrest IM’) announces the appointment of Robert Schlichting as Head of Institutional Sales for Germany and Austria, and Frank Stefes as Head of Third Party Distribution Sales for Germany and Austria, with effect from 16^th October 2017

Silvercrest Investment Managers announces the appointment of Eric Roeleven as Head of Institutional Sales, Zurich as of 1 October 2017.

Silvercrest Investment Managers announces the appointment of Ritesh Bamania as Head of Solutions.

Silvercrest Investment Managers announces the launch of the Silvercrest IM Family Offices team, to provide customised services to family offices in Europe.

Silvercrest Investment Managers announces the appointment of Samira Sadik Dadi as Head of Third-Party Distribution, French speaking Switzerland, who joined on 1 May.

Silvercrest IM announces the appointment of Jonathan Clenshaw to the newly created role of Head of Institutional Sales for Europe.

Silvercrest Investment Managers has expanded its impact investment offering with the launch of the Silvercrest – Global Responsible Equity, which aims to deliver quantifiable social and environmental impact hand-in-hand with excess financial performance.

Silvercrest Investment Managers is pleased to announce that the Silvercrest–Asia Value Bond fund has gained a five-star rating (highest rating) from Morningstar Ratings, effective January 2017.

Silvercrest Investment Managers (‘Silvercrest IM’) announce the launch of their new Global Climate Bond investment strategy to help combat climate change. This follows a strategic partnership with Affirmative Investment Management (‘AIM’), the fixed income manager dedicated to impact strategies.

Silvercrest Investment Managers is partnering with Affirmative Investment Management (AIM), the fixed income manager dedicated to impact strategies, to supplement its existing impact investing capabilities and launch a new fund designed to help combat climate change in a verifiable way.