convertible bonds: advantages of a dual prism

a bridge between bonds and equities.

Recent market moves have led to uncertainty, elevated volatility and shifting growth expectations. The resulting dispersion can create opportunities for benchmark-agnostic active managers to implement their convictions.
 

Convertibles are the bridge between bonds and equities. We can thus express our views through this dual prism whilst also deriving performance from higher volatility, unlike other traditional asset classes. Sharp moves open up areas for profit-taking and provide advantageous re-entry points.  


The convertible bond universe offers broad regional and sector exposure. It provides diversification vs global high yield (more Asia, less US; more utilities and consumer discretionary, fewer financials, technology and staples names). Convertibles are also a complementary investment for holders of global equities (more Asia, less Europe; more technology and utilities, less energy and communications).

 

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beneficial equity exposure.

From late 2020 to late 2024, the shares underlying the balanced convertible bond universe significantly underperformed the MSCI World, largely due to the divergence in the composition of the two baskets (the absence of the Magnificent Seven and some of the major global banks and insurers). Since late 2024, the divergence has flipped in favour of the convertible underlying shares. Having a different basket of quality growth names has proven beneficial in recent weeks. Exposure to companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi and Meituan1 (some of the Terrific 10) has been profitable in a period of rotation out of the US technology behemoths. 


Current positioning reflects several complementary convictions: exposure to defensive sectors (utilities, real estate), a preference for quality business models (strong balance sheets, pricing power), domestic exposure (in the US and China, which we expect to show resilience) and German infrastructure beneficiaries (industrials, defence). 
 

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a cash buffer.

To exploit convexity, we remain long risk relative to the benchmark to maintain a minimum level of absolute equity exposure. We are invested in companies with strong credit profiles, which we believe will weather the storm better than speculative names if spreads widen. Current cash levels are higher than average as a buffer against volatility and to position the portfolios to buy on weakness and participate in new issuance.

 

after the bell.

What do you think should be keeping other investors up at night? 

It is incredibly difficult in choppy markets to be perfectly positioned for every possible outcome. Even a long-term investor who is patient enough to look through the noise could be forgiven for the odd sleepless night. This is the kind of market where convertibles can really help investors ride out the storm: you can stay invested but be protected. 

authors.

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Arnaud Gernath
Head of Convertible Bonds 

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